Besides the question about when the lockdown will be lifted in India, the other question which is uppermost in the minds of the film trade people is: When will cinemas in the country reopen?
While it’s a fact that nobody can answer either of the questions with precision, everyone wants to hazard a guess. We asked industry waalas about how long after the lifting of the lockdown, whenever that happens, will it take for cinema screens to be lit up with films again? It is now accepted by everybody in the trade and even among the public that cinemas may take more time to reopen than the rest of the country because of two reasons: community viewing, which happens in cinema halls, may not be considered by people to be as safe as in the pre-coronavirus era till a medication or vaccination is found for the virus; secondly, the spending power in the hands of the people post-lockdown may not be enough for them to indulge in cinema viewing as they may struggle to fulfil their basic needs first. In other words, even if cinemas reopen, it may be weeks, even months, before people flock to them to catch the latest films. And if the public takes time to return to the cinemas, you can be sure that big-ticket entertainers will also take time to hit the screens.
Shibasish Sarkar, Group CEO – Content, Digital & Gaming, Reliance Entertainment, says, “I foresee more like an August/September situation. The lockdown across the country will be lifted earlier, probably by mid- or end-May. But cinemas will take at least another fortnight or month thereafter. So, more like a June-end or first week of July. That stage will be the first test whether the audience is going to come back. I foresee another four to six weeks for audiences to come back in full momentum even for the New Normal. So July-end or August is on the more expected lines. As you said, ‘No one knows’… but that’s what is our estimate.”
Devang Sampat, Director – India Strategic Initiatives at Cinepolis multiplex chain, opines that it will take at least four to six weeks after the lockdown is called off, for cinemas to be filled with people.
Kishore Lulla, chairman of Eros International, on the other hand, does not think that all the cinemas across the nation will see footfalls happening together. “In the green zone (with nil or almost nil coronavirus cases), cinemas will start to function as soon as the lockdown is lifted. Cinemas in the orange zone will take longer to see crowds coming in while cinemas located in the red zone (with coronavirus cases galore) will take months to see normal business,” he explains.
Producer Siddharth Roy Kapur has a very different take. Says he, “Frankly, no one really has the answer to the question about when cinemas will reopen. At this point, it does seem that before there is a vaccine or a cure, we cannot expect audiences to come back to cinemas in full force. Hence even if cinemas do reopen in either the October-December ’20 quarter or in the January-March ’21 quarter, we should be prepared for a significantly lower occupancy across the board. Having said that, I am equally confident that once we do find a vaccine or a cure (which at some time in the near future, we will!), audiences will come back to cinemas and release the pent-up need we all have to experience the magic of being back in a packed darkened hall with complete strangers to engage in a unique shared experience for a few precious hours.”
Filmmaker Satish Kaushik feels, it will take two to three months more after the lockdown is lifted, to see viewers come back to cinemas as in the good old days. He is of the view that “film people are a very tough and strong breed and have withstood the onslaught of television, satellite and digital invasion, apart from wars, swine flu and the like. They will also withstand the coronavirus. Since entertainment is the staple diet of Indians, they will return to the cinemas once normalcy returns.”
On the other hand, producer Mukesh Bhatt says, “We will have a clearer picture as to when theatres will reopen, only in the first week of June. As of now, I’m of the opinion that it could be in a phased-out approach, with smaller films to begin with, and then, gradually, after eight to 10 weeks of that, we can hope for a big film to release.”
Mukesh Bhatt’s elder brother, filmmaker Mahesh Bhatt, says, “Anybody who claims to have a crystal ball is talking nonsense. Nobody knows when cinemas will reopen. But reopen they will because human beings want to enjoy the collective cinematic experience, they want to see stories unfold on the screen. The industry and the government need to ensure the safety of the public which will come to the cinema halls. So do I see cinemas filled with people soon after the lockdown is called off? No! It will take a lot to make people, especially the affluent class, to get out of their homes after the lockdown is called off. But yes, film people are brave. Those who change will survive.”
Filmmaker Kabir Khan is practical when he says, “To be realistic, we will only be able to go back to the theatres once the fear of the virus goes away from the minds of people. And that will take a minimum of two to three months of seeing a steady and regular decline in the number of coronavirus cases after the end of the lockdown.”