Seems, anyone can predict film business today. Because there is no sense of accountability. Nobody questions, so anybody can get away with murder. Don’t believe us? Take a look:
There’s this agency which claims to know the public pulse. For this week’s release, it started by predicting that the first day’s net collections of Radhe Shyam would be Rs. 11 crore. As the release date approached, the agency realised that it was widely off the mark. And so, to save face, it very recently announced that the first day’s expected collection figure had reduced because the film had gotten 50% lesser multiplex showcasing than originally estimated. Really? Originally estimated by whom? The agency itself?! Anyway, going by the looks of it, the first day (March 11) of Radhe Shyam should close at Rs. 3 crore or 3.5 crore only. And mind you, it is not because of the so-called “50% lesser multiplex showcasing”.
The same agency predicted an opening day collection of Rs. 80 lakh for The Kashmir Files. However, to the shock of the agency, the first day might close at more than Rs. 3 crore. Almost four times the predicted figure!! Incidentally, it is The Kashmir Files which has had a very tight release as Zee has opted for limited screens and limited shows in those screens. So, here is where there is “lesser multiplex showcasing” but the collections will be almost four or five times the agency’s ‘fantabulous’ prediction.
Take a look at some more of the agency’s recent widely-off-the-mark predictions:
Gangubai Kathiawadi – Rs. 6.90 crore. The film actually opened at Rs. 9.75 crore.
Pushpa: The Rise Part 1 (dubbed) – Rs. 80 lakh. The first day’s total was more than four times the predicted figure. Yes, the first day closed at Rs. 3.52 crore.
Chandigarh Kare Aashiqui – Rs. 8 crore. But its actual opening was a paltry Rs. 3.10 crore.
Satyameva Jayate 2 – Rs. 13 crore. Actual opening was less than 25% of that — only Rs. 3 crore (on Thursday). The collection figure dropped to Rs. 2.10 crore on Friday!
Tadap – Rs. 1.80 crore. Actual collection for first day was more than double the predicted amount. The first day closed at Rs. 4.05 crore.
Sooryavanshi – Rs. 32 crore. The film actually opened at Rs. 26.29 crore.
Frankly, so widely off the mark is the agency in its predictions for the opening day’s collections of films that the trade has begun to wonder what its analytical tools are or, rather, if it does have any analytical tools and team at all. Such random figures can be predicted by any Tom, Dick and Harry. And, as they say, even a non-working clock shows the correct time twice every day!
Rightly has it been said, film business calculation and analysis is not everybody’s cup of tea. In this week’s release, Radhe Shyam, hero Prabhas’ character, Vikramaditya, proves right in his predictions 99% of the times. For this agency, the score is the same — but it is wrong 99% of the times!
