Even as life was returning to normalcy, the second outbreak of the coronavirus struck with more venom and more viciousness. In Maharashtra, there is already talk of another lockdown. Cinemas in many states of India have been either ordered to shut down or they’ve been asked to revert to 50% capacity instead of the cent per cent allowed a few months back. Weekend closure of cinemas seems to be the new in-thing. Imagine, time was when the trade people used to estimate the lifetime collections of films based on the net box-office collections of the first weekend. That’s because the weekend collections of a film were the most reliable barometer to assess its merits in commercial terms. And today, cinemas have been asked to remain shut during the weekends!
Imagine, time was when the trade people used to estimate the lifetime collections of films based on the net box-office collections of the first weekend… And today, cinemas have been asked to remain shut during the weekends!
This itself should underline the changing scenario on the film business front. One doesn’t know how long it will take for film collections to return to the pre-COVID levels; it could be a month, two months, six months, even a year. Nobody has the answer — neither the doctors nor the film trade people. The ‘new normal’ for the box-office is about to be defined. Films like Mumbai Saga and Roohi opened in cinemas last month but things were not as bad then as they are today. In fact, the second COVID-19 outbreak had not begun when these films opened in cinemas, which is why we got to see the box-office collections which we got to see. Of course, they weren’t what they would’ve been had there been no restrictions on capacities, and no fear of the coronavirus. But they also weren’t as bad as they would’ve been if the films were to be released now, in April. The virus outbreak this month is so rapid that attendance at cinemas has come down dramatically once again.
So what is going to be the new normal for the turnstiles? In the good old days, we used to talk in terms of Rs. 100-, Rs. 200- and Rs. 300-crore clubs. For A-list stars like Aamir Khan and Salman Khan, the yardstick used to be a net collection total of Rs. 300 crore. Akshay Kumar’s success used to be measured in terms of Rs. 200 crore. And so on and so forth. But will it be possible to see films collecting so much now? Doesn’t seem likely! Restrictions on cinemas’ capacities, weekend theatre closures, night curfews, complete shutdown… anything can upset the box-office cart anytime. In such a scenario, gone seem to be the days of Rs. 100-, Rs. 200- and Rs. 300-crore films. Take, for instance, Salman Khan’s Radhe. If it does release on Eid (May 13), as announced, it would be futile to expect the film to net Rs. 250 or Rs. 300 crore. At the rate at which coronavirus cases are increasing, it would actually be a wonder if Zee releases Radhe in May. Zee has two options before it: to release the film as an Eid offering and try to revive the beleaguered trade or to postpone it. If star-producer Salman Khan and Zee, which has acquired the worldwide rights of the film, decide to postpone the release, it shouldn’t come as a shock. Rather, releasing it on schedule would be a pleasant surprise because the film is a big-ticket entertainer and would need huge numbers to break even.
For A-list stars like Aamir Khan and Salman Khan, the yardstick used to be a net collection total of Rs. 300 crore. Akshay Kumar’s success used to be measured in terms of Rs. 200 crore.
Break even — that’s the catchphrase. Will the big ones be able to break even? May be, may be not! But the trade first and the public thereafter need to be attuned to judging a film as per the ‘new normal’ standards. Dismissing a big film merely because it does not collect Rs. 200 crore or Rs. 300 crore would be foolhardiness. With lowered capacities, cinemas in many parts either partially or completely shut, fear psychosis among people, collections are going to be far far from normal. One doesn’t know the details of the deal between Salman Khan and Zee but a prudent agreement would’ve definitely provided for a situation like the present one where a big question mark seems to be constantly ending every conversation which talks about the release of the film on Eid. Sooryavanshi, which was scheduled to be the first big-budget fare to hit the screens post-lockdown, has already been postponed by Reliance Entertainment. But no such official announcement has been made in the case of Radhe. Since Radhe was slated for release two weeks after Sooryavanshi, the film can be postponed even now. There’s still time (a couple of days, perhaps) for Zee and Salman to take the final decision. Whether Radhe or, for that matter, Reliance Entertainment’s 83 do arrive in the cinemas on May 13 and June 4 respectively, we as a Bollywood-obsessed nation must forget about collections of Rs. 250 crore or 300 crore. Much as we love our superstars, we must be more realistic in our approach. Let’s put it this way: it will just not be possible for such films to now join the hundred-crore clubs, not just yet. Their job would be to try and get the public back to the theatres, slowly but surely. If they can achieve that objective, we as a nation must celebrate them. Le us not burden these films with the task of collecting Rs. 200 crore or Rs. 300 crore because they are unachievable targets in the new normal.
Whether RADHE or, for that matter, Reliance Entertainment’s 83 do arrive in the cinemas on May 13 and June 4 respectively, we as a Bollywood-obsessed nation must forget about collections of Rs. 250 crore or 300 crore.
Whether Radhe or 83 or any other big film hits the screens, we must cheer for them even if they net Rs. 75 crore because that would be the new trade paradigm. The sooner we accept this, the more at peace we all will be with ourselves.
...We must cheer for them even if they net Rs. 75 crore because that would be the new trade paradigm.